Binance Hack Odds: How A $6.3 Billion Theft Moved Polymarket's Crypto Board
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Binance Hack Odds: How A $6.3 Billion Theft Moved Polymarket's Crypto Board
Sergey Demidov Head of News Department
Fact checked by: Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Updated: Oct 30, 2026, 6:01 PM Published: Oct 30, 2026, 1:17 PM
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A significant event unfolded on Binance's trading floor on Thursday, October 27th, 2026. A hot-wallet drain amounting to approximately $6.3 billion sent shockwaves through the crypto market. This event, triggered around 4:24 p.m. ET, resulted in a cascade of effects, including Bitcoin's dip to its lowest level since mid-September and a repricing of almost every crypto asset on Polymarket.
(Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
What Happened At Binance
A Binance hot wallet on Ethereum was compromised around 4:24 p.m. ET, draining roughly $2.8 billion, according to CryptoTicker. The outflows quickly spread across multiple blockchains, with Binance estimating a total loss of $6.3 billion in assets. Chainalysis puts the theft at $5.9 billion, four times the size of the 2025 Bybit hack, making it potentially the largest crypto heist on record.
Approximately $3 billion has been frozen. Tether froze over $1.56 billion in USDT, and Circle froze more than 800 million USDC. Binance's preliminary investigation suggests a compromised engineer's laptop, not a leaked private key, was the culprit. TRM Labs links the attack "with high confidence" to TraderTraitor, a North Korean hacking group, although Binance has not officially attributed it.
The market reaction was swift. Bitcoin hit an overnight low near $76,400 and recovered to around $77,300 by early Friday. Ether dipped to $2,170 before rebounding to approximately $2,230. BNB experienced the most significant drop among the major cryptocurrencies, falling over 7% at its worst. Liquidations totaled $1.57 billion, according to CoinDesk.
Polymarket, independently, briefly halted trading on its international platform on Thursday after a third-party vendor was compromised. However, no link has been established between this incident and the Binance breach, and Polymarket assures affected traders of full reimbursement.
The Binance Hack By The Numbers
- $6.3 Billion In Assets Affected: Binance's estimated loss from the hot-wallet drain.
- $5.9 Billion: Chainalysis' estimated theft size, four times the 2025 Bybit hack.
- $3 Billion Frozen: Assets frozen by Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC).
- $1.57 Billion In Liquidations: According to CoinDesk.
- 7%+ Drop For BNB At Its Low: The most significant drop among major coins, despite no direct impact.
Below is a comparison of market movements before and after the hack:
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Bitcoin:
- Thu. 12:14 a.m. (before hack): Dips to $75,000
- Fri. 12:14 a.m. (post-hack): Falls to $76,400
- Fri. 8:14 a.m.: Reaches $70,000
-
Ethereum:
- Thu. 12:14 a.m.: Dips to $2,100
- Fri. 12:14 a.m.: Hits $2,400
- (Later in the day) Dips to $2,000
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Other Assets:
Tables and graphs showing the market movements for various cryptocurrencies before and after the hack.